Labour still has a fighting chance of winning the most seats in the general election, according to a Guardian/ICM poll published today. The findings suggest Tory hopes of a defining breakthrough have been overplayed, with the gap between the two main parties now at just four points – the closest in an ICM poll for almost two years.
Labour support has climbed four points to 33% since an ICM poll carried out for the Guardian last week. Conservative backing has dropped one since then to 37% – Labour's best ICM rating since December 2008 and the Tories' worst since February. On a uniform national swing, these figures could leave Labour 30 seats short of an overall majority. Even if the Tories perform better than average in marginal seats – as most people expect – David Cameron would struggle to establish a secure parliamentary basis for power. Either party could be left dependent on the Liberal Democrats, who are on 21% in the poll – down two from last week. Despite that decline, the Lib Dems will be pleased by the strength of their position going into the election. The party has been at or above 20% in seven of this year's 11 ICM polls.
Read the full Guardian article here.
