Labour and the Conservatives are neck and neck in the marginal seats that will determine the outcome of the general election, raising doubts over David Cameron’s ability to win a clear overall majority, according to a special poll for The Times. The survey was carried out by Populus in 100 key seats currently held by Labour and targeted by the Conservatives. Although more voters are switching to the Tories in these areas than in the country as a whole, the results suggest that the shift is well below the hopes and expectations of Mr Cameron’s strategists. The poll shows that the switch of voters from Labour to the Tories is about 1.5 to 2 points higher in the battleground seats than nationally. That might be worth an extra 20 MPs to the Conservatives, smaller than many in the party would hope after the big spending on these targets. It might be enough only to take the Tories to the threshold of the 326 seats they need for a bare overall majority in the Commons. The election is weeks away, almost certainly on May 6.
Curtains for Cameron
Many voters still have doubts about the Tories. The poll shows that in the key marginals 41 per cent of all voters, and 45 per cent of women, believe that it is “time for a change” but are not sure the change should be to the Conservatives. Thirty-four per cent think it is “time for a change” to the Tories, with 19 per cent saying that it does not seem like “time for a change” from Labour." In the key seats, Labour is still just ahead, on 38.2 per cent, down from 45.3 per cent in the 2005 election. The Tories are on 37.6 per cent, up from 31.4 per cent. This means that they should gain 97 Labour-held seats. Taking account of boundary changes, it is likely that the Conservatives would need up to 20 further seats from the Liberal Democrats and others for an overall majority. Only 32 per cent in the marginals expect a Tory overall majority, against 43 per cent in a national poll last month. Similarly, 25 per cent now think that a Labour overall majority is most likely, against 16 per cent. The row over the tax status of Lord Ashcroft, the Tory deputy chairman, has damaged the party. Of the 68 per cent who said that they had followed the story quite closely or even vaguely, some 28 per cent — including 10 per cent of Tories — said that it had made their overall view of the party less favourable.
Many voters still have doubts about the Tories. The poll shows that in the key marginals 41 per cent of all voters, and 45 per cent of women, believe that it is “time for a change” but are not sure the change should be to the Conservatives. Thirty-four per cent think it is “time for a change” to the Tories, with 19 per cent saying that it does not seem like “time for a change” from Labour." In the key seats, Labour is still just ahead, on 38.2 per cent, down from 45.3 per cent in the 2005 election. The Tories are on 37.6 per cent, up from 31.4 per cent. This means that they should gain 97 Labour-held seats. Taking account of boundary changes, it is likely that the Conservatives would need up to 20 further seats from the Liberal Democrats and others for an overall majority. Only 32 per cent in the marginals expect a Tory overall majority, against 43 per cent in a national poll last month. Similarly, 25 per cent now think that a Labour overall majority is most likely, against 16 per cent. The row over the tax status of Lord Ashcroft, the Tory deputy chairman, has damaged the party. Of the 68 per cent who said that they had followed the story quite closely or even vaguely, some 28 per cent — including 10 per cent of Tories — said that it had made their overall view of the party less favourable.
