A senior government adviser has been keeping a diary since the general election. The writer, who wishes to remain anonymous, shares his thoughts with the Guardian …
It was a unique week in Whitehall and civil servants are shattered. Last-minute changes to the spending review kept Treasury staff up most of Tuesday night. Officials and ministers have been working flat out for weeks. Now there is relief and catharsis. It has been exhausting carrying all these numbers around in our heads, anxious about what people will think when they see them. Now everyone knows our terrible secret and it feels good finally to share it.
The spending review is a hugely ambitious plan. But that is all it is. In Westminster, we are worried. We know it will be almost impossible to deliver many of the savings that have been promised. There is too much reliance on "efficiencies" becoming real cash savings. As every good civil servant knows, efficiencies are projections and promises – they don't yet exist in real life.
There is a vain hope that police budget efficiencies will prevent thousands of policemen being sacked, NHS efficiencies will prevent thousands of nurses and doctors being sacked, local government efficiencies will paper over the widening cracks, and shared services will reduce the overall cost of government. Sadly, the more likely scenario is some savings and a lot of sackings.
The most amusing target of all – 3,000 fewer prisoners by 2014 – has caused much laughter at the Ministry of Justice, especially when prisoner numbers are at a record high, having doubled over the last 15 years. It is a fantasy number, unless the Treasury has calculated that cuts to police officers and courts services will mean fewer criminals being caught and convicted.
Public services are interconnected. Without a proper strategy, cutting one just passes the costs on to others. Local authority cuts mean less housing and services. Together with huge welfare cuts, this puts pressure on the police to sort out the homeless and the hungry and increases demand on the NHS. Local authority cuts mean reduced social care services which means more pressure on the NHS. All this increases demand on the saddest social safety net of all. The one place where you always get free food and a bed – a prison.
Civil servants in key government departments will be instrumental in the attempt to realise these reforms and inefficiencies. Only they can really make them happen. But instead of motivating their civil servants with a powerful vision of the joint task ahead, ministers have told their staff that at least a third of them will no longer be required. This is a bold, selfless move that may prove to be a disastrous blunder. Sweden, cited as a successful example of fiscal consolidation, avoided big changes to central government because it knew the dangers of reducing and weakening the team at the centre.
Many departments have already started messy redundancy programmes that are consuming precious time and energy. This is a long process. As it progresses, civil servants will be distracted from their day jobs as they undergo lengthy assessments. When it is over, ministers will be frustrated at how much this affects their ability to do their job well. They won't have everything they want, as fast as they want, in the way they want. The people just won't be there to do it for them.
The government is desperate now to stop talking about cuts and set out plans for boosting economic growth. There is great expectation – as expanding the economy is the answer to all our problems. Currently, there is a problem with the plans for economic growth – there are no serious concrete plans for economic growth. This is a laissez-faire government that believes government should sit back and watch as the "big society" takes care of itself.
