The list comprises 81 Labour MPs, Conservatives 36, Lib Dems 7 and Other (which rather unkindly includes Alex Salmond) 2. This means out of Labour and Conservative, Labour has the greater fight on its hand and surely reduces the swing required by the Conservatives for an overall majority.
The 1979 Conservative election victory was the result of a 5.3% point Lab-Con swing; in 1997, there was a Con-Lab swing of 10.2% points. With these two exceptions, swing between the two main parties at General Elections has not exceeded 5% points since 1950. For the Conservatives to win an overall majority requires a uniform national swing of 6.9%. This would be higher than any election since 1950, except 1997.
NOTE: The swing from Party A to Party B is the average of the percentage point fall in Party A’s share of the vote and the percentage point rise in Party B’s. A 1% swing from one party to another involves adding 1% point of votes to one party and subtracting 1% point of votes from the other.
UK Polling Report website
Parliament website
